Climate migration: 216 million internal migrants projected by 2050
Climate change is increasingly a demographic force — not through dramatic sea-level catastrophes, but through gradual disruptions to agriculture, water availability, and habitability that push people to move. The World Bank's Groundswell projections estimate up to 216 million internal climate migrants globally by 2050, making it one of the largest potential drivers of human movement this century.
What the Groundswell projections say
The World Bank Groundswell report, updated in 2022, models internal climate migration across six regions using three climate and development scenarios. The headline figure of 216 million is the pessimistic scenario — high emissions combined with unequal development. Under an optimistic scenario with Paris Agreement-consistent emissions reductions and targeted development investment, the number falls to around 44 million. The gap illustrates how much policy choices matter.
The Groundswell methodology models three climate hazards: slow-onset agricultural disruption (failed crops, erratic rainfall), water stress, and sea-level rise affecting coastal zones. These interact differently in different regions — Bangladesh faces coastal flooding, the Sahel faces rainfall unpredictability, Central America faces water stress and crop failure. Each produces a different migration dynamic and timeline.
Regions under greatest pressure
Sub-Saharan Africa faces the largest absolute climate migration pressure — up to 86 million internal migrants by 2050 under the pessimistic scenario — driven primarily by agricultural disruption in the Sahel and water stress across East Africa. The UNHCR Global Trends data already shows displacement from climate-related drought and flooding rising in the Horn of Africa.
South Asia contributes up to 40 million climate migrants, heavily concentrated in Bangladesh (sea-level rise and cyclones) and India (water stress and agricultural disruption in rain-dependent farming regions). The IOM South Asia office monitors current displacement patterns that are already visible in these projections.
East Asia and the Pacific adds up to 49 million, dominated by China's coastal zones and Pacific island states facing existential sea-level threats. For Pacific island populations — Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands — climate migration is not a future risk but a present policy challenge. The Pacific Regional Environment Programme coordinates regional adaptation planning.
Why standard migration statistics miss this
Standard net migration statistics — which measure cross-border flows using border records, census data, and residence permits — are poorly suited to tracking climate migration. Most climate movement is internal: rural-to-urban, coastal-to-inland, within the same country. Internal migration doesn't show up in international datasets at all. Even when it is captured, it is difficult to attribute to climate specifically versus economic opportunity or other factors.
The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) tracks disaster-driven displacement annually and found 26.4 million new internal displacements from weather-related events in 2023 alone. The IOM's environmental migration portal documents the methodological approaches being developed to better measure and attribute climate-linked population movement.
Implications for population projections
Standard UN population projections — including the medium variant — do not explicitly model climate migration. They incorporate historical migration patterns as inputs but do not build in scenario-specific climate disruption. This is a known limitation discussed at conferences like IPC 2021 and PAA 2024. Integrating climate migration scenarios into mainstream demographic projections is an active frontier in the field.
For an interactive view of current migration patterns by country — before climate migration materialises at scale — the PopulationTheGuide explorer shows net migration data alongside total population curves from the World Bank dataset.
Frequently asked questions
How many people could be displaced by climate change by 2050?
The World Bank Groundswell report projects between 44 million (optimistic, strong climate action) and 216 million (pessimistic) internal climate migrants by 2050 across six regions.
Which regions face the most climate migration pressure?
Sub-Saharan Africa (up to 86 million), East Asia and Pacific (49 million), and South Asia (40 million) face the largest pressures. Each region faces different hazard types — agricultural disruption in the Sahel, sea-level rise in Bangladesh and Pacific islands, water stress in South Asia.
Is climate migration different from other migration?
Primarily, yes — climate migration is mostly internal (within-country) rather than cross-border, and typically slower and more gradual than conflict displacement. Standard net migration statistics do not capture it well. The IDMC tracks disaster-driven internal displacement annually.