Latin American Population Association — ALAP 2022
The 9th ALAP Congress (Montevideo, Oct 18–21 2022) brought together 600+ demographers to examine Latin America's rapid fertility decline, intra-regional migration, and emerging ageing pressures. Key themes: below-replacement fertility spreading southward, Venezuelan displacement crisis, and pension system stress.
Congress overview
The 9th Congress of the Latin American Population Association (ALAP) convened at Antel Arena in Montevideo, Uruguay, from 18–21 October 2022. The biennial congress — the main professional gathering for academic and applied demographers in the region — drew approximately 600 researchers, statisticians, and policy analysts from 30+ countries. ALAP was founded in 2004 to consolidate Latin American demographic research and advocacy into a single institutional voice, modelled on the Population Association of America (PAA) and the European Association for Population Studies (EAPS).
Montevideo was a fitting venue: Uruguay was the first Latin American country to complete its demographic transition (a century ago), reaching near-replacement fertility as early as the 1950s and now contending with one of the most aged populations in the region, with a median age of 35 and 15% of the population aged 65+. Its early-mover status made it a natural laboratory for the ageing dynamics that the rest of the region is only now beginning to confront.
Session highlights
Fertility decline below replacement across South America
Multiple sessions documented that below-replacement fertility had spread beyond the early adopters (Chile, Brazil, Costa Rica) to most of the region. Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru all now sit at or below 2.1. Debate centred on whether Latin America is on a path to lowest-low fertility (below 1.3), replicating South Korea or Japan, or whether higher female labour-force participation combined with better work-family policies might stabilise TFRs above 1.5. The CELADE/ECLAC team presented projections showing the regional aggregate falling to 1.7 by 2040 in the low-fertility scenario.
Venezuelan displacement: demography of a hemisphere crisis
With 7.1 million Venezuelans outside their country by October 2022, ALAP devoted three dedicated sessions to the crisis. Researchers from R4V (Refugee and Migrant Response for Venezuela), IOM, and UNHCR presented data on receiving-country impacts: Colombia absorbed 2.5 million, Peru 1.5 million, Ecuador 500,000. The typical migrant is 25–35 years old, well above median education for Venezuela — a stark brain drain for the sending country and a temporary demographic dividend for receivers whose labour markets were ageing. See our climate migration article for the broader context of large-scale displacement.
Pension systems under demographic stress
A joint session with ECLAC's Social Development Division examined pension sustainability. The "ageing before getting rich" paradox — where dependency ratios are rising faster than per-capita income — was central. Brazil's 2019 pension reform was reviewed; Chile's ongoing AFP debate (whether to move from fully-funded private accounts to a hybrid with a solidarity tier) featured prominently. Colombia's government had just proposed merging the public and private pension pillars — generating significant discussion about distributional effects. See the dependency ratio glossary entry for the mechanics.
Data infrastructure and civil registration gaps
A methodological track addressed the persistent gap in civil registration quality across the region. Haiti, Bolivia, Guatemala, and Paraguay all have incomplete vital registration systems, meaning that TFR, infant mortality, and cause-of-death statistics rely on survey-based estimation (primarily DHS and MICS), which introduces uncertainty that obscures true demographic dynamics. WHO's CRVS (Civil Registration and Vital Statistics) initiative progress was reviewed — with consensus that most of the region remains 10–15 years from achieving 95%+ birth and death registration coverage.
Key takeaways and policy implications
ALAP 2022 solidified several findings with direct policy relevance. First, Latin America's demographic dividend window is closing. Countries that have not yet translated their working-age bulge into investment, institution-building, and human capital accumulation (as South Korea and Taiwan did in the 1970s–80s) will find the window closing without having capitalised on it. ILO estimates that Latin America needs to create 20+ million formal jobs per year to absorb both the remaining working-age bulge and the informal sector.
Second, intra-regional migration is now the primary driver of population change in several countries — and the data infrastructure to track it in real time is inadequate. This matters because migration affects the natural increase calculation indirectly (migrants are disproportionately young and have children in the receiving country) but also directly through net-migration's contribution to population change. See the net migration glossary entry for the methodology.
Third, gender inequality remains a structural driver of fertility decisions. Women in Latin America bear disproportionate childcare burdens despite high female labour force participation. ALAP sessions referenced the OECD gender wage gap data and the limited availability of affordable childcare as structural barriers that push many women to choose fewer or no children — a dynamic similar to what South Korea's fertility crisis illustrates at the extreme.
Frequently asked questions
What is ALAP and who attends?
ALAP (Asociación Latinoamericana de Población) is the main professional association for demographers in Latin America and the Caribbean. Its biennial congress draws 500–700 academics, government statisticians, and international agency staff from across the region and globally.
What was the key fertility finding at ALAP 2022?
Multiple sessions documented that below-replacement fertility (TFR < 2.1) had spread to most of South America and Mexico. The regional aggregate had fallen to ~2.0, with Chile at 1.55 and Brazil at 1.75, sparking debate about whether Latin America would replicate East Asia's descent to lowest-low fertility. See our Latin America fertility decline article for full context.
How large was the Venezuelan migration crisis discussed at ALAP 2022?
By late 2022, approximately 7.1 million Venezuelans had left the country — the largest displacement crisis in the Western Hemisphere's history. ALAP sessions examined the demographic impacts on receiving countries (Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile) and the sending-country effects of losing primarily working-age adults. Source: R4V Refugee and Migrant Response for Venezuela.
What pension reform themes emerged at ALAP 2022?
Brazil's 2019 pension reform, Chile's ongoing AFP debate, and Colombia's proposed pension unification were all discussed. The common thread: with median ages rising and working-age population growth slowing, pay-as-you-go systems face deficits before countries reach high-income status — the "ageing before getting rich" problem documented by ECLAC.